Oil markets in turmoil: How political movements are shaping the future


Source: Financial Times, February 13th 2025, “Brent Crude Oil Price”


The last couple of weeks have been hectic to say the least.


After a substantial fall in the price of crude oil (Brent), it looked like it was slowly increasing again.

There are multiple explanatory factors to the decrease, but US president Donald Trump’s promise to

increase production is the most prominent. OPEC+ had a meeting in the first week of february, which

resulted in a continuation of their current plan to cut production in April. 


Less uncertainty in the markets resulted in a price gain for crude oil in early February. But the markets

are ever changing again. President Donald Trump's announcement of talks being held with president

Putin Wednesday February 12th is indicating a shift in global politics and trade. For the past two years

Russia has been heavily sanctioned by the EU and USA for their ongoing war in Ukraine. Peace in Ukraine

will affect the markets in the short and long term. In the short term, easing of the sanctions may reduce the

prices as the re-entry of Russian oil in the international markets increases the supply. In the long term the

prices will be affected by what kind of peace deal the negotiations result in. If the majority of Ukraines

closest allies are not satisfied, future sanctions may apply again and the crude oil prices gain.


Source: Financial Times, February 13th 2025, “RBOB Gasoline Price”


We have seen some of the same price adjustments in the gasoline market. As previously stated, the movements

can be due to less uncertainty in the markets, a possible peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, and the

planned production cuts made by OPEC+.

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